Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is the psychological phenomenon where people selectively collect evidence to confirm their previously held belief. We all do it and I can only assume it has some protective value for us humans. 

I've been noticing a lot of this phenomenon recently. 

It is amazing how every EU television debate has Twitter flooded with people saying how their side 'won the argument'

We like to be right. It feels very uncomfortable to be wrong.

Clever people, such as Boris Johnson (don't be fooled by the scruffy hair and word stumbling) can make use of this trait in people. "Ah, well, erm, that £350 million pound figure is wrong, yes I accept that but we give too much money to the EU and we give them £350 million pounds too much." You hear that and it confirms your belief that we give too much money to the EU and you reason that £350 million, which is a lot of money, could be the correct figure. Both sides are doing it. Cameron says we will all be doomed if we leave the EU and if you think we should stay in, you agree with him (even though, no one actually knows what might happen) and repeat his fears as though they were fact.

It's not just facts that are the issue. Personality politics is a huge factor. If you think that Cameron is a pig loving twit you are likely to hear his facts as false but if you are irritated by lizard-face Farage then you are more likely to believe  them.

There are big marmite personalities in this debate. 

Eddie Izzard's appearance on Question time caused many people a seriously uncomfortable moment of cognitive dissonance. He wasn't on their side but they liked him (or vice versa). Jeremy Corbyn on the Last Leg caused a similar outcry that wasn't worthy of either side's comments.  People who liked him before the programme said, "Did you see JC on the Last Leg? I thought he was rather good......funny in fact." People who disliked him were furious that he (a man who is notorious for having no sense of humour) could even be allowed on a comedy programme.

When people feel as though their side is losing the argument they cry that they were picked on, not listened to or interrupted. This frequently happens with Nigel Farrage, who isn't as skilled at factual argument as others are and Jeremy Corbyn, who isn't as skilled at the game of politics.

I have found this whole debate very difficult, as I'm struggling to weed out the personalities and clearly didn't have enough of a bias to confirm in the first place. I'm still of the opinion that we, the general public, are not qualified to judge and I am absolutely furious that they are spending £142.4 million pounds of tax payers money to  get us to answer a question that they can't decide on.

This morning, I am not only furious about the EU vote I am also devestated by the violence in America. 

Donald Trump has immediately stepped in to use it as confirmation of his own bias. He tweeted, "Appreciate the congrats on being right about radical Islamic terrorism." 

Then there is this weird thing that happens.  People put a spin on the story that reflects their own confirmation bias. The facts are that a man, originally from Afghanistan, told his dad that he was disgusted when he saw two gay men kissing, went out and bought a gun, walked into Orlando's "hottest gay nightclub", he may have shouted something about Allah and then he shot at hundreds of people, killing 50 of them.

The fact that this gunman was of Islamic faith is very convenient. It helps to maintain the status quo. The people in America who passionately believe in the right to bear arms don't have to let go of that belief because it was terrorism, not a gun that did it. 

Sky News had the saddest, most uncomfortable newspaper review I have ever seen.

Owen Jones was clearly very upset by the shooting and his own confirmation bias tells him that there is still a horrendous amount of violence directed at gay men (or the LGBT community). He felt the other two were focusing on their confirmation bias; guns and Islsmic terrorists who want to stop people enjoying themselves. He got up and left or walked off in a strop (depending upon your own bias) and the presenters continued without any compassion for his distress. 

History tells us that violence against minority groups (LGBT, Jews, women(ha, funny minority)) is common and that we prefer not to think about it. How long did it take after the war before people finally believed that the Hollocaust happened? Even when the pictures emerged people were still saying that they didn't believe it. 

Psychologists think that confirmation bias happens for two reasons. The first is motivational (sometimes called the Pollyanna phenomenon) where you can't bear to think the other thing might be true. They think that this creates the bias and then cognitive reasons, such as only being able to focus on one thought at a time, determine the size of the effect. 

I think it's a problem that us humans get stuck like this allowing every fact to confirm a belief, even when it actively disproves it.  I try to be as balanced as I can but know I am guilty of this phenomenon. I would try to stop doing it but fear that my brain might explode and when I am rushed to hospital the doctors would say that I'm fine because brains can't actually explode.