Wednesday 22 May 2019

European Confusion

I might be being really stupid but I'm confused.  Tomorrow's European Union elections are baffling me for many reasons. I keep hearing people on the radio and seeing social media posts urging people to vote tactically so that they can have a 'People's Vote', make sure we stay in the EU or so that we make sure Brexit happens.  You can log onto certain websites and they will tell you the best party to vote for to get what you want.  This, you are meant to blindly accept as the truth, even though we know that polling data is notoriously unreliable.

My first confusion came because I looked at the European Elections website to find out how it all worked.

I was able to easily find out that we are voting for the MEPs to represent the East of England and that seven MEPs would be elected but then I tried to find out who to vote for by looking at the candidates only to find the following statement: "Political parties have not yet published their list of candidates.  The deadline for doing so is April 25th." How was I meant to work out who to vote for.  The lady on the radio had said that we would be going to the polls to select our candidate but how am I supposed to do that if they haven't chosen them yet.

It turns out that you don't vote for a candidate. You vote for a party.  Seems simple enough, right?
Maybe not.

Firstly, EU candidates are selected by proportional representation (PR)  This is a system of voting that we are not used to.  Very clever people who like spreadsheets are big fans of PR and they think it would give us a fairer mix of MPs in parliament.  Not so clever people (and those who vote for the candidate that always gets in) prefer our current first past the post system.  As if this difference wasn't enough to confuse you every European country can choose it's own way of doing PR.  We have chosen the D'Hondt system, which sounds very much like the Don't system.  In our area there are seven seats.  The first seat goes to the candidate at the top of the list of the party that gets the most votes.  That party's votes then gets divided by the number of candidate they have plus one.  The second seat goes the candidate at the top of the list of the party that now has the most number of votes and their votes are reduced in the same way.

Here's my simplified way of trying to understand.
There are 6 parties in my mythical election.
The Purples got 700 votes
The Pinks got 600 votes
The Browns got 500 votes
The Oranges got 400 votes
The Blacks got 300 votes
The Whites got 200 votes

The purples get their first choice candidate elected and their vote share goes down to 350, which makes the Pinks get the next seat (their first listed candidate)  and their share goes down to 300.  The Browns are next and their share goes to 250. Next the Oranges get their first listed candidate and their share goes to 200.
Now the party with the most votes is the purples again and so their second choice candidate gets a seat.  Their vote share is now worked out at 700/2+1 = 233 votes.
The party with the most votes next is jointly the Blacks and the Pinks and now I don't know how it works but I guess they both get a seat (the Blacks share going down to 150 and the Pinks share down to 200), which gives the last seat to Brown.

So, now I've got my head around the proportional representation I still have other things that confuse me.

I'm confused by the idea of voting tactically to get a Brexit or no Brexit deal.  Have I missed something? I really don't understand how voting the MEPs in makes any difference to whether we leave the European Union.  It is our parliament that have been unable to organise this thing.  The MEPs are going to have to do the job of being members of the European Parliament.  They get to put our side when making EU rulings that affect all 27 countries.  In our area the advice seems to be to vote Green if you want to stop Brexit happening.  Apart from not understanding why this will make any difference at all the Green MEP will then be sitting in the European Parliament making laws to stop you using your gas guzzling jeep or taking long haul flights for no good reasons (like holidays).  Whilst I might think this is a good idea and be happy to vote Green, you might like your big car and long flights and not really be bothered about climate change and Polar Bears.  People have argued that Nigel Farage has used his position as an MEP to bring about our country voting to leave.  I'm sure the idea of us having loads of Farages in the European Parliament fills our government with dread.  If we are going to have to continue being part of this organisation then maybe it might be useful to have people on our side who actually turn up to meetings and take the whole thing seriously.

This is why I wanted to know about the candidates.  I don't want to vote for a party who is likely to field a candidate that just takes their salary and doesn't do the job. I wanted to check out how serious they are.  I have also noticed that voting for a party doesn't always give you the truth of the candidates beliefs.  In local elections in my area I have noticed liberals standing as conservatives and much more left wing candidates standing as independents because it is such a safe Tory seat.  People who want the job will stand for the party that is most likely to get them elected.

So I have done some research, which I will share with you because I think people often don't vote because they don't understand the process or know who to vote for but please bear in mind that I know nothing and am still confused.

East of England

7 seats, 3 currently elected as Ukip, 3 Conservative, 1 Labour
Brexit Party - doesn't have a manifesto but is committed to rejecting all deals and leaving the EU on WTO terms. They particularly dislike Sadiq Kahn.
  1. Richard Tice - Is really hoping to get in.  He is the current chairman of the Brexit Party.  He is 54 and was educated at Uppingham and Salford University.  He is the CEO of a property company that has a portfolio of £500million.  He is chair of governors of Northampton acadamy (one of the first) and has written a book called Academies: A Model Education.  He tweets a lot about Brexit and never pictures of cats or his children.  His personal website says, "By the age of 17 I had already earned my nickname Ticey...."
  2. Michael Heaver - Is a writer who has started his own online publication called Westmonster, which has been called the UKs Breitbart News.  His articles make interesting if not a little scary reading and he describes his ethnicity as 'milk bottle white'.  I like that you could make a good limerick with his name as it rhymes with leaver.
  3. June Mummery - is managing director of Lowestoft fishmarket auctioneers, BFP.  She likes fish a lot.  She failed to get shortlisted for the apprentice when she wanted Lord Sugar to invest in a fishing boat and she says her nickname is Boudicea. Her twitter feed has lots of pictures of fish and she uses phrases like, 'smoke them out' when talking about politicians.
  4. Paul Hearn - Voted to remain in 2016. He cycled 800km from Bordeaux to deliver a letter to Theresa May asking for a meaningful vote on whether to have Brexit or not.
  5. He believes that the politicians have ignored democracy and betrayed the voters. He says he has also woken up to the opportunities that Brexit will bring.  
  6. Priscilla Huby - is a mathematician and artist who lives in Letchworth.  She is general governor of the Letchworth Heritige foundation.  She doesn't tweet much.  
  7. Sean Lever - collects clocks and watches and has fallen into this role due to nominative determinism.
  8. Edmund Fordham - is a physicist and engineer and he doesn't tweet.  
Change UK - Although their main focus is getting a people's vote and changing UK politics they do have a manifesto, the want to tackle climate change, want an open frictionless border to remain prosperous and healthy.  They believe in the NHS, a free press, fair trade.
  1. Dr Emma Taylor - Is an Engineer  and genuinely a rocket scientist(Top 50 women engineers) and is interested in how bad Brexit will be for science and technology.  
  2. Neil Carmichael - 58 year old ex- conservative MP for Stroud in Gloucestershire.  He was on the educational select committee.  He has always opposed Brexit and campaigned for a further referendum.
  3. Bhavna Joshi - is interested in healthcare and particularly ageing and oncology.
  4. Michelle de Vries - film score composer.  Tweets happy smiling positive things and pictures of the batmobile. 
  5. Amanda Gummer -has a PhD in neuropsychology. She has a background of working with young people and is aware that getting elected is 'extremely unlikely at this time.'
  6. Thomas Graham - is a passionately pro- European scout leader.
  7. Roger Casale - 59 year old former Labour MP and civil rights activist.
Conservatives -are very unhappy about having to have this election. They wanted to be able to get Brexit through and so see no point in fielding candidates. 
  1. Geoffrey van Orden - is one of the current MEPs, who has been doing his job.  He turns up for meetings and has worked on Foreign Affairs defence and terrorism.  He would like to reform the EU and has been trying to achieve that from the inside.
  2. John Flack - is also a current MEP. He is from a family of farmers is particularly keen on animal welfare and has a dog called Noggin. 
  3. Joe Rich - Father, husband, lifelong Brexit campaigner.  Barrister who tweets about fox hunting  cases.
  4. Thomas McLaren - Brentwood Borough Council housing and welfare committee member.  Has 100% attendance record at council meetings.
  5. Joel Charles - Deputy leader of Harlow Conservatives. He's worried about what to do with the ageing population before it's too late. 
  6. Wassim Mughal - No internet presence found
  7. Thomas Smith - What?  Tom, you didn't tell me.  I'm surprised.
English Democrats - have a large manifesto that is about making England great. It has some slightly weird aims, like the reunification of Yorkshire. As a Nationalist party it is very pro Brexit.
  1. Robin Tilbrook - 61 year old solicitor and politician. Founder member of the English Democrats.
  2. Charles Vickers - Treasurer of the English Democrats.  Lives in Letchworth.  I wonder if he knows Pricilla?
  3. Bridget Vickers - Bridget's internet presence brings to you pictures of Charles Vickers.  Is he Bridget on weekends?
  4. Paul Wiffen - Stood in London Assembly elections for UKip in 2008
Greens - Stop Brexit, climate change and rebuilding communities. The Greens are strong in Europe and make alliances with other countries easily.
  1. Catherine Rowett Professor of Philosphy at UEA.  She's currently writing about Plato and her surname rhymes with poet.
  2. Rupert Read - is without Twitter but not without controversy.  Has made some comments about Trans people that people weren't happy with.
  3. Martin Schmierer - Lord Mayor and Norwich Councillor. His hobbies are films and travelling to far off lands.
  4. Fiona Radic - lives in Cambridge and works in University admin
  5. Paul Jeater - calls himself the Essex Womble on Twitter
  6. Pallavi Devulapalli 
  7. Jeremy Lloyd Caddick
Independent
  1. Attila Csordas - Atilla? Really?  Did he not think of changing his name. Anyway, he's a scientist who wants to make us live forever.
Labour - want people to back them to stop far right parties winning seats.  They have a manifesto focusing on Climate Change, protecting food and animal welfare standards and promoting peace and stability across Europe
  1. Alex Mayer - Current MEP.  Also from Letchworth.  I imagine her, Pricilla and Charles and Bridget having their own version of come dine with me.
  2. Chris Vince - Labour councillor for Harlow.  Wants to save all the starfish.
  3. Sharon Taylor - Stevenage Labour councillor.  Also from Letchworth. This is a huge dinner party.
  4. Alvin Shum - keen on preventing climate change.  Professional organiser with own views.
  5. Anna Smith - Cambridge City councillor proud to live off Mill Road.  Likes eating.
  6. Adam Scott - English Teacher. Loves singing and eating on the side.
  7. Javeria Hussain - From Luton.  Enjoying a healthy Ramadan.
Liberal Democrats - Want to stop Brexit and have clear policies on how to engage with Europe for the benefit of Great Britain.
  1. Barbara Gibson - Phd in cultural communication and owns two Westies from Welwyn Garden City
  2. Lucy Nethsingha - Lib Dem leader on Cambridge County Council. Has pictures of her children and trees on Twitter
  3. Fionna Tod - Looks very young.  I'm getting very old and tired.
  4. Stephen Robinson - Career Politician. Degree in politics. Chelmsford council, Works with kids inspire. Must have big brain as has a large forehead.  Sorry. I'm getting bored of this.  I'm sure you've all stopped reading. I expect he's a very nice man. You can look the rest up yourself if you are interested.  I've done enough.
  5. Sandy Walkington
  6. Marie Goldman
  7. Julia Ewart
Ukip - As Brexit was their idea even though they dumped Nigel they are sticking with it.  They don't want to pay a single penny more, though, so it could be tricky.  They do have other things on their manifesto.  The one about Child Sexual Exploitation is worth a read.
  1. Stuart Agnew - Current MEP and farmer.  Believe Climate change to be a scam.
  2. Paul Oakley - has just written a book called, 'No one likes us, we don't care.'
  3. Liz Jones - Has a picture of herself in a union flag bikini on Twitter.
  4. William Ashpole
  5. Alan Graves Jr
  6. John Wallace
  7. John Whitby
I'm not any less confused than I was before but at least you are as confused as I am - or I've bored you to sleep.

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