Cummings and Goings

I’ve been thinking a lot about advisors over the last few days, since I finished The Mirror and the Light. It is such a brilliantly written book that even though you know Thomas Cromwell must have been a bit of a dodgy character you are on his side all the way. In about 500 years time someone could write a novel about Dominic Cummings and make him sound......not wierd, maybe?

People in power need advisors. Preferably, they need lots of them, so that Groupthink mistakes don’t occur. However, each advisor will have their own agenda and when one becomes as powerful and influential as Cromwell was, the only way to get rid of him for a mistake was to make sure he was beheaded. The other advisors couldn’t risk letting him resign over the Anne of Cleves error, whispering in the King’s ear and changing his mind.

I have been particularly thinking about the Scientific Advisory Group, that they had to pretend was for all emergencies, otherwise they would have been known as SAG which doesn’t sound as wise as SAGE. This group contains some behavioural scientists and it is those I’ve been thinking of recently. These scientists must have known that a significant proportion of the population would not understand how far 2m was, or would not believe that the advice to meet one other person wouldn’t mean that ten of you couldn’t sit around a picnic blanket. They will have known that some people wouldn’t have obeyed the rules and that others would be overly obsessive with them. They will have known that most people don’t wash their hands very often (honestly, Psychologists love a hand washing study) and they will know that it takes people about 3 days to start to adjust to new freedoms. There is no coincidence that two weeks after this is the exact date that Boris will announce whether schools are to start to go back on June 1st. This is when they will know if there has been a rise in hospital admissions.

I have had a sense of unease that we are being manipulated and not fed all the facts. I worry that they know this is how people will behave and it is all a big experiment. If they suspect that the virus has burnt itself out (like SARS did - no vaccine was ever developed and there have been no known cases since 2004) then they have to test it out and the only way to do that is to get people mixing again.

I have always thought that they haven’t given us suspected end dates for lockdown to avoid Third Quarter Phenomenon. Psychologists studying space travel noticed that mood became lowest just over half way past the mission (Harrison & Conners 1984). Bechtel & Berning (1991) named the phenomenon and since then people have studied the factors that cause it. It doesn’t appear to matter how long the mission is but knowing that you are only just over half way through makes people depressed, anxious, irritable and unproductive. I wonder if the psychologists advising, suggested avoiding giving firm dates so that the whole country didn’t get depressed and angry at the same time.

By now, you will have seen the Mirror’s breaking news story that Dominic Cummings and his wife travelled from London to Durham when they were sick with Coronavirus, so that his seventy year old parents could look after his young boy. You will also note that he was discovered by someone who heard him dancing with his son in their garden to ABBA. Oddly, he’s not denying it. He has called it fake news, which is particularly odd when he says it’s true. Unless it is fake news and he knows that because he planted it.

I know, I’m becoming properly paranoid but bear with me a moment.

Cummings has been part of the SAGE meetings. I’ve never had a problem with that, government advisors should be there so they can advise on the political position. As a communications expert, he could advise on things like the slogans. What if not enough people are breaking the ‘rules’ to properly test it? What better way than for people to get upset with him.
”One rule for them, another for us,” we cry.
“I haven’t seen my mum in months and he visits her when he’s actually got it.”
“That’s it! I’m on the M1 tomorrow!”

For me, the timing is particularly suspicious. Breaking news at the beginning of a sunny bank holiday weekend. Someone getting this story now when it happened on the 27th of March seems bizarre. If I had seen him I would have told the papers that day and telling on people isn’t my thing. It is also weird that his wife wrote a very convincing article in the Spectator about their Coronavirus experience at the time that didn’t mention leaving London. The detail that makes me most suspicious is that he was discovered because loud music was heard and the neighbour looked over the hedge to see Cummings dancing with his son to ABBAs Dancing Queen! This is a gift for headline writers:
“Mama Mia Cummings Goes Again.” I haven’t looked this morning but I’m sure they will be there.
Also, he’s not that stupid that he didn’t understand the rules that he helped to make.

Dominic Cummings will, eventually, have to resign. However, will it make any difference? He can still whisper in his mate Boris’ ear. He doesn’t need the money and there will be other opportunities for him but if the aim was to get people out there, taking risks they wouldn’t take if the advisors were honest with them it will have been worth it. A no blame experiment for the government.